Advertisement
Research Article| Volume 3, ISSUE 4, P244-255, 1993

Decision analysis and carotid endarterectomy

  • Stephen E. Nadeau
    Correspondence
    Address correspondence and reprint requests to Dr. S. E. Nadeau at GRECC (182), VA Medical Center, Gainesville, FL 32608-1197, U.S.A.
    Affiliations
    From the Geriatric Research, Education, and Clinical Center, Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Center, and Department of Neurology, University of Florida College of Medicine, Gainesville, FL, U.S.A.
    Search for articles by this author
      This paper is only available as a PDF. To read, Please Download here.
      A data base and a framework for clinical decision analysis are provided to enable the clinician to determine the value of carotid endarterectomy in patients with transient ischemic attacks. This approach permits optimal utilization of available data, maximizes the value of informed consent by clearly delineating areas of physician and patient expertise, and permits a quantitative assessment of the impact of uncertainty regarding underlying variables on decision outcome. The results of the analysis indicate that (a) the late nonstroke death rate has little effect on the value of endarterectomy, (b) the patient's relative valuation of stroke and immediate versus delayed death are among the most crucial variables underlying the value of endarterectomy, and (c) endarterectomy may be indicated in certain patients with transient ischemic attacks, but when its utility is measured in terms of value rendered to the patient, its relative cost may be greater than that of certain life-saving operations such as heart or liver transplant.

      Key Words

      To read this article in full you will need to make a payment

      Purchase one-time access:

      Academic & Personal: 24 hour online accessCorporate R&D Professionals: 24 hour online access
      One-time access price info
      • For academic or personal research use, select 'Academic and Personal'
      • For corporate R&D use, select 'Corporate R&D Professionals'

      Subscribe:

      Subscribe to Journal of Stroke and Cerebrovascular Diseases
      Already a print subscriber? Claim online access
      Already an online subscriber? Sign in
      Institutional Access: Sign in to ScienceDirect

      References

        • Weinstein MC
        • Fineberg HV
        Clinical decision analysis. Saunders, Philadelphia1980
        • Brott TG
        • Labutta RJ
        • Kempcainski RF
        Changing patterns in the practice of carotid endarterectomy in a large metropolitan area.
        JAMA. 1986; 255: 2609-2612
        • Hankey GJ
        • Warlow CP
        • Sellar RJ
        Cerebral angiographic risk in mild cerebrovascular disease.
        Stroke. 1990; 21: 209-222
        • Dennis MS
        • Bamford JM
        • Sandercock PAG
        • Warlow CP
        A comparison of risk factors and prognosis for transient ischemic attacks and minor ischemic strokes.
        Stroke. 1989; 20: 1494-1499
        • Friedman GD
        • Wilson WS
        • Mosier JM
        • Colandrea MA
        • Nichaman MZ
        Transient ischemic attacks in a community.
        JAMA. 1969; 210: 1428-1434
        • Kannel WB
        • Wolf PA
        Epidemiology of cerebrovascular disease.
        in: Ross-Russel RW Vascular disease of the central nervous system. Churchill Livingstone, New York1983: 1-24
        • Loeb C
        • Priano A
        • Albano C
        Clinical features and long term follow-up of patients with reversible ischemic attacks (RIA).
        Acta Neurol Scand. 1978; 57: 471-480
        • Marshall J
        The natural history of transient ischemic cerebrovascular attacks.
        Quart J Med. 1954; 33: 309-324
        • Marti-Vilalta JL
        • Lopez-Pousa S
        • Grau JM
        • Barraquer L
        Transient ischemic attacks. Retrospective study of 150 cases of ischemic infarct in the territory of the middle cerebral artery.
        Stroke. 1979; 10: 259-262
        • Ziegler DK
        • Hassanein RS
        Prognosis in patients with transient ischemic attacks.
        Stroke. 1973; 4: 666-673
        • Cartlidge NEF
        • Whisnant JP
        • Elveback LR
        Carotid and vertebral basilar transient cerebral ischemic attacks. A community study, Rochester, Minnesota.
        Mayo Clin Proc. 1977; 52: 117-120
        • North American Symptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy Trial Collaborators
        Beneficial effect of carotid endarterectomy in symptomatic patients with high-grade carotid stenosis.
        N Engl J Med. 1991; 325: 445-453
        • European Carotid Surgery Trialist's Collaborative Group
        MRC European Carotid Surgery Trial: interim results for symptomatic patients with severe (70–99%) or with mild (0–29%) carotid stenosis.
        Lancet. 1991; 337: 1235-1243
        • Streifler JY
        • Benavente OR
        • Harbison JW
        • Eliaszilo M
        • Hachinsk VC
        • Barnett HJM
        Prognostic implications of retinal versus hemispheric TIA in patients with high grade carotid stenosis: observations from NASCET.
        Stroke. 1992; 23: 159
        • Bernstein EF
        • Dilley RB
        Late results after carotid endarterectomy for amaurosis.
        J Vase Surg. 1987; 6: 333-340
        • Healy DA
        • Clowes AW
        • Zierler RE
        • et al.
        Immediate and long term results of carotid endarterectomy.
        Stroke. 1989; 20: 1138-1142
        • Hertzer NR
        • Arison R
        Cumulative stroke and survival ten years after carotid endarterectomy.
        J Vasc Surg. 1985; 2: 661-668
        • Nunn DB
        Carotid endarterectomy in patients with territorial transient ischemic attacks.
        J Vasc Surg. 1988; 8: 447-452
        • Sacquegna T
        • D'Addato M
        • Baldrati A
        • et al.
        Long-term prognosis after carotid endarterectomy.
        Eur Neurol. 1986; 25: 36-39
        • Takolander RJ
        • Bergentz SE
        • Ericsson BF
        Carotid artery surgery in patients with minor stroke.
        Br J Surg. 1983; 70: 13-16
        • Whisnant JP
        • Sandok BA
        • Sundt TM
        Carotid endarterectomy for unilateral carotid system transient cerebral ischemia.
        Mayo Clin Proc. 1983; 58: 171-175
        • DeBakey ME
        • Crawford ES
        • Cooley DA
        • Morris GC
        • Garrett HE
        • Fields WS
        Cerebral arterial insufficiency: one to 11-year results following arterial reconstruction operation.
        Ann Surg. 1965; 161: 921-945
        • Deweese JA
        • Rob CG
        • Satran R
        • et al.
        Results of carotid endarterectomies for transient ischemic attacks-five years later.
        Ann Surg. 1973; 178: 258-264
        • Fields WS
        • Lemak NA
        Joint study of extracranial arterial occlusion. IX Transient ischemic attacks in the carotid territory.
        JAMA. 1976; 235: 2608-2610
        • Lord RSA
        Late survival after carotid endarterectomy for transient ischemic attacks.
        J Vasc Surg. 1984; 1: 512-519
        • Rosenthal D
        • Stanton PE
        • Lamis PA
        Carotid endarterectomy.
        Arch Surg. 1981; 116: 1569-1573
        • Matsumoto N
        • Whisnant JP
        • Kurland LT
        • Okazaki H
        Natural history of stroke in Rochester, Minnesota, 1955 through 1969: an extension of a previous study, 1945 through 1954.
        Stroke. 1973; 4: 20-29
        • Robinson RW
        • Cohen WD
        • Higano N
        • et al.
        Life-table analysis of survival after cerebral thrombosis-ten-year experience.
        JAMA. 1959; 169: 1149-1152
        • Sacco RL
        • Wolf PA
        • Kannel WB
        • McNamara PM
        Survival and recurrence following stroke. The Framing-ham Study.
        Stroke. 1982; 13: 290-295
        • Turney TM
        • Garraway WM
        • Whisnant JP
        The natural history of hemispheric and brainstem infarction in Rochester, Minnesota.
        Stroke. 1984; 15: 790-794
        • Boyd NF
        • Sutherland HJ
        • Heasman KZ
        • Tritchler DL
        • Cummings BJ
        Whose utilities for decision analysis.
        Med Decis Making. 1990; 10: 58-67
        • Ciampi A
        • Silberfeld M
        • Till JE
        Measurement of individual preferences. The importance of “situation-specific” variables.
        Med Decis Making. 1982; 2: 483-495
        • Jonas S
        Asymptomatic carotid stenosis.
        Stroke. 1985; 16: 900-901
        • Beck JR
        • Pauker SG
        The Markov process in medical prognosis.
        Med Decis Making. 1983; 3: 419-458
        • Pliskin JS
        • Shepard DS
        • Weinstein MC
        Utility functions for life years and health status.
        Oper Res. 1980; 28: 206-224
        • Daniels N
        Why saying no to patients in the United States is so hard: cost containment, justice and provider autonomy.
        N Engl J Med. 1986; 314: 1380-1383
        • Miller FH
        • Miller GAH
        The painful prescription: a procrusteanperspective.
        N Engl J Med. 1986; 314: 1383-1386
      1. One miracle, many doubts. Time Dec. 10. 124. 1984: 70-77
        • Dyken ML
        Carotid endarterectomy studies: a glimmering of science.
        Stroke. 1986; 17: 355-358
        • Ennix CL
        • Lawrie GM
        • Morris GC
        • et al.
        Improved results of carotid endarterectomy in patients with symptomatic coronary disease: an analysis of 1,546 consecutive endarterectomies.
        Stroke. 1979; 10: 122-125
        • Sundt TM
        • Sharbrough FW
        • Piepgras DG
        • Kearns TP
        • Messick JM
        • OTallon WM
        Correlation of cerebral blood flow and electroencephalographic changes during carotid endarterectomy.
        Mayo Clin Proc. 1981; 56: 533-543
        • Goldman L
        • Caldera DL
        • Nussbaum SR
        • et al.
        Multifactorial index of cardiac risk in noncardiac surgical procedures.
        N Engl J Med. 1977; 297: 845-850
        • McNeil BJ
        • Pauker SG
        • Sox HC
        • Tversky A
        Ontheelici-tation of preferences for alternative therapies.
        N Engl J Med. 1982; 306: 1259-1262
        • McNeil BJ
        • Weichselbaum R
        • Pauker SG
        Fallacy of the five-year survival in lung cancer.
        N Engl J Med. 1978; 299: 1397-1401
        • Bogousslavsky J
        • Despland P-A
        • Regli F
        Asymptomatic tight stenosis of the internal carotid artery: long-term prognosis.
        Neurology. 1986; 36: 861-863
        • Dixon S
        • Pais SO
        • Raviola C
        • et al.
        Natural history of nonstenotic asymptomatic ulcerative lesions of the carotid artery.
        Arch Surg. 1982; 117: 1493-1497
        • Hennerici M
        • Hülsbömer H-B
        • Hefter H
        • Lammerts D
        • Rautenberg W
        Natural history of asymptomatic extracranial arterial disease. Results of a long-term prospective study.
        Brain. 1987; 110: 777-791
        • Hertzer NR
        • Flanagan RA
        • O'Hara PJ
        • Beven EG
        Surgical versus nonoperative treatment of asymptomatic carotid stenosis.
        Ann Surg. 1986; 204: 163-171
        • Moore DJ
        • Miles RD
        • Gooley NA
        • Sumner DS
        Noninvasive assessment of stroke risk in asymptomatic and nonhemispheric patients with suspected carotid disease.
        Ann Surg. 1985; 202: 491-504
        • Norris JW
        • Zhu CZ
        • Bornstein NM
        • Chambers BR
        Vascular risks of asymptomatic carotid stenosis.
        Stroke. 1991; 22: 1485-1490
        • Nadeau SE
        • Jordan JE
        • Mishra SK
        Stroke rates in patients with lacunar and large vessel brain infarctions.
        J Neurol Sci. 1993; 114: 128-137
        • Kirshner DL
        • O'Brien MS
        • Ricotta JJ
        Risk factors in a community experience with carotid endarterectomy.
        J Vasc Surg. 1989; 10: 178-186
        • Bernstein EF
        • Humber PB
        • Collins GM
        • Dilley RB
        • Devin JB
        • Stuart SH
        Life expectancy and late stroke following carotid endarterectomy.
        Ann Surg. 1983; 198: 80-86
        • Ingelfinger FJ
        Arrogance.
        N Engl J Med. 1980; 303: 1507-1511
        • Read JL
        • Quinn RJ
        • Berwick DM
        • Fineberg HV
        • Weinstein MC
        Preferences for health outcomes. Comparison of assessment methods.
        Med Decis Making. 1984; 4: 315-329
        • Christensen-Szalanski JJ
        Discount functions and the measurement of patients' values. Women's decisions during childbirth.
        Med Decis Making. 1984; 4: 47-58
        • Matchar DB
        • Pauker SG
        Endarterectomy in carotid artery disease. A decision analysis.
        JAMA. 1987; 258: 793-798