Abstract
Background: In this study, we developed novel logistic regression models for the diagnostic and
prognostic assessment of ischemic stroke. Methods: A total of 288 ischemic stroke patients and 300 controls admitted to The First Affiliated
Hospital of Soochow University were included in the testing group. Two validation
groups from The Affiliated Kunshan Hospital of Jiangsu University and The Second Affiliated
Hospital of Soochow University were included to assess our novel assessment models.
Results: Results from the testing group indicated that the diagnostic assessment model for
ischemic stroke prediction was: Logit(P) = 437.116 − 87.329 (Hypertension) − 89.700
(Smoking history) − 87.427 (Family history of ischemic stroke) − .090 (high-density
lipoprotein cholesterol [HDL-C]) − 1.984 (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C])
− 17.005 (Lp(a)) − 15.486 (Apo A/Apo B), and the final prognostic assessment model
of ischemic stroke was: Logit(P) = 458.437−92.343 (Hypertension) − 89.763 (Smoking
history) + .251 (NLR) − .088 (HDL-C) − 1.994 (LDL-C) − 2.883 (hs-CRP) − .058 (IL-6)
− 6.356 (TNF-α) − 16.485 (Lp(a)) − 17.658 (Apo A/Apo B). In the validation groups,
our novel diagnostic assessment model showed good identification (with 87.5% sensitivity
and 84.2% specificity in The Affiliated Kunshan Hospital of Jiangsu University, with
85.5% sensitivity and 89.0% specificity in The Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow
University). Moreover, our novel prognostic assessment model has a high value in identifying
poor prognosis patients in the validation groups from The Affiliated Kunshan Hospital
of Jiangsu University (χ2 = 8.461, P = .004), and The Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University (χ2 = 7.844, P = .005). Conclusions: The diagnostic and prognostic assessment models we have established are of great
value in the diagnosis and prognostic evaluation of ischemic stroke.
Key Words
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Article info
Publication history
Published online: February 04, 2020
Accepted:
January 8,
2020
Received in revised form:
December 31,
2019
Received:
September 28,
2019
Footnotes
Financial Disclosure: This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
Identification
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2020.104653
Copyright
© 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
